Cestrian Stocks Bulletin

By Cestrian Capital Research, Inc

Darwinism In Action (Cestrian Stocks Bulletin #162)

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Cestrian Stocks Bulletin
Darwinism In Action (Cestrian Stocks Bulletin #162)
By Cestrian Capital Research, Inc • Issue #162 • View online
MUST READ for all subscribers.

DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc., its employees, agents or affiliates, including the author of this note, or related persons, may have a position in any stocks, security, or financial instrument referenced in this note. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note’s date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Companies referenced in this note or their employees or affiliates may be customers of Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. values both its independence and transparency and does not believe that this presents a material potential conflict of interest or impacts the content of its research or publications.
Moving Fast, Trying Not To Break Things
Here at Cestrian Towers we have thus far had a remarkable 2022.
The market has been so bad for so long that even sensible folks have turned permabear in their financial lives and in consequence become almost feral IRL. If you see an otherwise-sensible individual hoarding water, canned food, ammunition and heading off to their bunker in a Mad Max-mobile? They’ve been spending too much time on DoomTwit, the social media venue formerly known as FinTwit. No long the joyous preserve of Wen Moon, FinTwit has gotten all macro and serious. No end of newly-appointed Professors of Macroeconomics And Its Impact On The Stock Market (transmogrified Growth Bros to a man) will queue up to tell you we’re all DOOMED.
Here’s one of our favourite Fear-Tweets.
https://twitter.com/MFHoz/status/1554130060390588417?s=20&t=OiEfbew-pRb0IO0NSLxvhA
https://twitter.com/MFHoz/status/1554130060390588417?s=20&t=OiEfbew-pRb0IO0NSLxvhA
So far the doomsayers have been wrong since the June lows, and our own take on markets is that the next move is up. Here’s SPY for instance. See that light green rectangle between the June lows and today? That can strike fear into the hearts of bears, because it looks like it may be 1-2 up. (You can open a full page version of this chart, here).
Source: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis
Source: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis
And the thing is, if that’s a 1-2 up - and by the way, the QQQ is showing the same pattern as are a whole bunch of growth stocks like $ZS, as is Ether … then here’s what a 1-2 up can lead to. (You can open a full page version of the chart below, here).
Source: https://share.trendspider.com/chart/SPY/54723yi7noh
Source: https://share.trendspider.com/chart/SPY/54723yi7noh
Yup. A Wave 3. Smaller-degree only for now but it could see SPY make a local high in the range of $432-458, perilously close to those 2021 highs. And if that happens, the doom case recedes a little more.
Anyway, despite all the fear, we’ve grown our business at an exceptional rate of knots, across all our service types - our free newsletters, our paid newsletters, and our real-time Growth Investor Pro service are all on fire, in a good way.
We’ve found that growth in this newsletter has been slower, significantly slower. We aren’t sure why - the content is similar to our other fast-growing services although this is the only letter we run on Twitter, so whether the content isn’t suited to a Twitter audience so much, or whether the platform distribution isn’t so good, we don’t know. But we are going to take this newsletter and include it with our Cestrian Market Insight letter that runs on Substack.
What does this mean for you?
If you’re a free subscriber here, we’ll start sending you Cestrian Market Insight instead of this letter. We hope you like it and indeed we believe you will, since you will receive richer posts, more often.
If you’re a paying subscriber here, we’re giving you a free 12-month subscription to Cestrian Market Insight Premium, which will kick in by next week.
So the net benefit for our readers here should be positive, very positive. But if you have any complaints, grouches, concerns, anything - just email us at [email protected] and we’ll do all we can to help.
Now, we have to go doomscroll on ItsAllGoingToZeroTwit for a little motivation. See you over at Cestrian Market Insight soon!
Cestrian Capital Research, Inc - 12 September 2022.
DISCLOSURE: Cestrian Capital Research, Inc staff personal accounts hold long positions in, inter alia, $UPRO, $TQQQ, $ZS, $ETHE.
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