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I Think I'm Going To Vomit (Cestrian Stocks Bulletin #97)

Cestrian Stocks Bulletin
I Think I'm Going To Vomit (Cestrian Stocks Bulletin #97)
By Cestrian Capital Research, Inc • Issue #97 • View online
“Community”. Bleurgh. No, it’s OK. Oh, hang on, urgh, yep - gotta go.

DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and in particular is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc., its employees, agents or affiliates, including the author of this note, or related persons, may have a position in any stocks, security or financial instrument referenced in this note. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note’s date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Companies referenced in this note or their employees or affiliates may be customers of Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. values both its independence and transparency and does not believe that this presents a material potential conflict of interest or impacts the content of its research or publications.
Our Mothers Would Be So Proud
Here at Cestrian Capital Research, between our directors and shareholders, we have degrees positively up the proverbial. Careers spent in fancy jobs of the financial and legal kind. Suits. Ties. Oxfordy-lookin shoes. All that. And so it is of endless amusement to us that the company we now own and run has a core part of its business operating a couple stock boards. The best of which is sat inside our Growth Investor Pro service. Each and every time an idea is communicated not through the high art of mime, but the low practise of meme, we thank our lucky stars that those suits are gathering dust at the back of the office wardrobe. Because in this latest act of our professional lives we appear to have found success running …. a community?
Being technology investors by training, chit-chat isn’t something to which we naturally turn. We’re more likely ourselves to be considering whether that’s a 0.786 retracement on that stock chart, whether in fact the US will succeed in re-shoring semiconductor fabrication, and/or whether it’s worth getting into a Twitter argument about whether web3 is a thing or not. This is what we consider to be socially acceptable small talk. Community lol.
Anyway, the most wonderful thing about the investor community we’ve attracted to our Growth Investor Pro service is that, one, the skill level is very high, two, that everyone is pulling in the same direction rather than in the way many actual investment firms work, wherein folks spend much of their time secretly hoping Fat Faced Bob’s complex derivative strategy unwinds quick-smart on him, causing him to (a) be fired therefore (b) miss the payments on the Lambo he doesn’t even own (it’s only leased) but won’t stop talking about and then © commence a long and painful decline and finally (d) have to join the Retired Janitors Of Idaho and not, we might add, as the manager of their retirement system but in fact as a Retired Janitor himself. Oh, and, three, folks in our community actually help new joiners to succeed.
Now, this is great on upswings in the market, because ideas come in thick and fast, we at Cestrian Towers can run numbers, churn out charts and whatnot, and folks decide what to do with their hard-earned as a result. All happy-clappy of course. But where the community has really proven its worth is prior to the usual selloffs in the market, be they deep or shallow, brief or seemingly unending. The tool used by the community is the “We Got This Alert”. When things are going too well, when most all the ideas we put forward or our community generates start moving up and bigly, right away, when it’s all looking easy like we all be genius investors … anyone is at liberty to shout, “We Got This!”. Meaning of course, “Yikes!! We Definitely Do Not Got This!!! RUN FOR THE HILLS!!”. And the more folks pile in with the We Got This Alert, the more we know to worry.
Through most of November we positively printed money. J-Po had nothing on us. Brrrrr brrrr brrrr went the printer, all day and all of the night. Which led to a number of our wise members sounding the Alert. Which led us to take a very good look at the indices last weekend. Which told us that the S&P500, the Nasdaq, the Russell 2000 (in IWM ETF form) were all looking ready for a correction, based simply on the degree to which they had moved up in recent months. The S&P500 was sat at the 100% Fibonacci extension of its most recent larger-degree Wave-1 up, and the Nasdaq at the 1.618 extension of its Wave-1 up. “Yikes”, we said. Could get rough. And so last Sunday we published this cheery note.
Source: Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. - 28 November 2021
Source: Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. - 28 November 2021
The note then went, blah blah blah, stock chart, Fib this and that, blah. Basically. And concluded with our ever-motivational-élan;
Source: Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. - Sunday 28 November 2021
Source: Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. - Sunday 28 November 2021
Well, reader, this did in fact age well. All indices have been digging for victory this week and the underlying stocks, certainly those not called Apple, have been committing unspeakable acts of self-harm. At some point they will rejoin polite society once more; for now we have redeployed the harvested cash, adding a little here and there, again, some our own ideas, some generated by our community. (Did we tell you about our professional restaurateur who can call a $JWN swing trade to the dollar? Or our pro rates trader who has successfully called the Fed’s moves blow by blow these last 18 months, which has helped us to stay very profitably long on growth names way after most investors got scared and bailed?)
The point is this. When Brokerage Accounts Attack, it’s easy to just climb under the desk and hope it all goes away. Certainly if you wait long enough and you don’t own too much garbage and aren’t margin’d to the nines, it probably will. Stocks be only going up and all that. But if you want to raise your investment game, not only to improve your hit rate on the upswing but also to learn how to actually take profits when you have them and then better protect yourself on the downswing? Then join us. Yes, now. Even though you are likely feeling bruised and battered and all done with stonks and absolutely no way are you giving some dang-miserable-overly-wordy research shop any of your money. I mean there is so much information for free these days. Pay! Lol.
We understand this sentiment. Especially on this community nonsense. Because prior to running this shop, our experience of “online investment communities that help each other succeed” was a lot like coincidences on NCIS. Heard of ‘em. Never seen one.
But lookit. Read our reviews. You can see most of them on our website, here. And then think to yourself, would I like to join the kind of investment community that … does actually help each other win? That helps each other avoid a beating when the market is threatening to administer such? That has yet to descend into a Lord of the Flies debacle involving Bob’s Repossessed Lambo?
Not The Kind Of Repo Bob Had In Mind
Not The Kind Of Repo Bob Had In Mind
And then think, OK, this shop here that keeps spamming me with newsletters is asking only $66/month - because if I can simply be bothered to email my Seeking Alpha username to them at [email protected] then I get half off my year one. And, even if I buy that deeply discounted annual, to get the good price, if I hate it, I can quit in month one and only pay that measly $66, not the whole annual-locked-in gizmo, because I will get my eleven unused months refunded.
So in short: your downside? Max $66, assuming you can be bothered to cancel in month one if you hate it or think it isn’t worth the money. Your upside? That’s down to what you do with our work, but again - we would point you to our Growth Investor Pro reviews to see how other folks have fared.
Join us. You have nothing to lose ‘cept your sixty six green ones. (Remember green?) And, what? You lost less than that this week?
Cestrian Capital Research, Inc - 3 December 2021.
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