In all our pay services, from our simple idea-of-the-week-service
to our real-time-work-side-by-side-with-us service
, we’ve flagged Spire Global ($SPIR) as a buy. We said so from the day that, as a private company, it stated it was due to be acquired by the SPAC shell, NavSight Holdings (former ticker, $NSH). Even when the SEC decreed that SPACs were doubleplusungood, we said, Spire is a buy.
Our logic was simple. It was a SPAC, Jim, but not as we know it. No science project this, but a real business whose economics are no worse or better than market darling Cloudflare ($NET) - it just happens to be in space. We like Iridium ($IRDM) because it’s a telco, in space; we like Spire because it’s an analytics business, in space.
The market’s initial response to our clarion call can only be described as, meh. The stock barely moved out of the $9-10 zone for months. And, on de-SPAC day when SPAC shareholders elect to either convert their shares in the holdco into shares in the target company, or redeem to get their $10 back … some 90%ish of NSH shareholders redeemed! This we found remarkable. But still we said, Buy.
Well, that call has started to bear fruit, abundantly it might be said. As is typical in any kind of stock analysis, the reason the idea is playing out is not at all related to the reasons we thought would cause the stock would move up. But no matter. Moving up is what it is doing. From the notional $10/share value where you could have bought SPIR on many occasions in recent weeks, the stock closed today at $15.27, up around 50% in barely a few weeks.
Actually you could have bought the name at sub $9 just four weeks ago. Here’s a note of ours from 25 August.